For the last decade, I’ve enjoyed the four-team playoff format. But now, the new 12-team playoff is right around the corner, bringing even more excitement and hype to college football. I’m here to bring the most accurate predictions you can find.
The 12-team college football playoff debuts on December 20 with Indiana at Notre Dame in a first-round matchup. The first round continues on December 21 with SMU at Penn State, Clemson at Texas, and Tennessee at Ohio State. The quarterfinals start on December 31 with the Fiesta Bowl hosting number 3 Boise State as they take on the winner of SMU at Penn State. On January 1, 2025, the Peach Bowl hosts number 4 Arizona State and the winner of Clemson at Texas. On the same day, the Rose Bowl will kick off between Oregon and the winner of Tennessee at Ohio State, as well as the Sugar Bowl, which will be between Georgia and the winner of Indiana at Notre Dame. The semifinals start on January 9 with the Orange Bowl and the semifinals end on January 10 with the Cotton Bowl. The National Championship will be on January 20.
First Round
Indiana at Notre Dame
This is easily the hardest game to predict. Both Indiana and Notre Dame ended the regular season with an 11-1 record. Indiana not only has one of the best defenses in the FBS, but also has the best run defense in the FBS. Notre Dame, on the other hand, struggles heavily through the air with most of their offense coming on the ground. This game will simply be decided on whether Indiana’s defense or Notre Dame’s offense will win the ground game. Ultimately, defense wins championships.
The Pick: Indiana
SMU at Penn State:
When the 12-team playoff format was introduced, critics were scared of a lopsided matchup. Not only is Penn State playing at home, but Penn State is simply better than SMU in every facet. Penn State’s run offense is far superior to any defense that SMU can create.
The Pick: Penn State
Clemson at Texas:
Clemson is coming off their first-ranked win of the season after a 34-31 win over SMU. While Clemson has lost three games this season, two of them have been to top 15 schools in Georgia and South Carolina. Texas is a heavy favorite in this game but is coming off of their second loss against Georgia this season. In addition, Texas’ high-flying offense has slowed down throughout the season compared to their blistering start of the season. While many argue Texas hasn’t beaten anyone in the regular season and there is never any shortage of upsets in college football, there is too much of a talent gap between the two programs for any of that to matter.
The Pick: Texas
Tennessee at Ohio State:
Both Tennessee and Ohio State have ended the regular season with a 10-2 record, with each team losing to a ranked and unranked team. Without Ohio State’s shocking loss against Michigan, they would no doubt be a higher-ranked team, with wins against programs such as Indiana and Penn State. This Tennessee team is different than in years past as they rely heavily on its defense and run game. Tennessee’s stellar run defense matched with Ohio State’s struggles with running the ball this season could cause huge issues for Ohio State. However, Ohio State’s passing offense matched with the discrepancy of talent that Ohio State has all over the field will be too much for Tennessee to handle.
The Pick: Ohio State
Quarterfinals
Penn State vs Boise State:
Boise State has been a fan-favorite throughout the year because of their record-breaking running back and Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty. However, because of Jeanty’s production, Boise State has become one-dimensional, and against a run defense like Penn State, Boise State will run out of options quickly.
The Pick: Penn State
Texas vs Arizona State:
Arizona State has been the most surprising team this season as they are led by quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cameron Skattebo. However, the problems that come with the 12-team playoff arise again as Texas is simply a far more talented team.
The Pick: Texas
Ohio State vs Oregon:
Oregon, led by Heisman finalist quarterback Dillon Gabriel, finished as the only undefeated team in the FBS. Unfortunately for them, with the way that the bracket worked out, they will have to match up with the most talented team in college football. In addition, this will be Oregon’s first game in almost a month while Ohio State, coming off the win against Tennessee will feel that they can beat anyone.
The Pick: Ohio State
Indiana vs Georgia:
Georgia has been the biggest question mark going into the playoffs. They will most likely have to play with their backup quarterback, Gunner Stockton after Carson Beck suffered from an injury in the SEC Championship game. Georgia is still more than good enough to challenge for the national championship because of how complete their whole team is. Indiana’s one ranked game this season was against Ohio State, where it was obvious that they were not good enough to beat a powerhouse program. Indiana’s defense won’t be enough to carry them to victory against a complete team like Georgia.
The Pick: Georgia
Semifinals
Texas vs Ohio State:
Texas hasn’t beaten a single ranked team in the regular season and will match up against two of the easier teams in the playoffs. Ohio State has had impressive wins in the regular season and will have real tests in the first two rounds of the playoffs. While Texas and Ohio State are the two most talented teams in college football, the momentum Ohio State will have will give them a slight edge.
The Pick: Ohio State
Penn State vs Georgia:
Although Penn State will be thrilled to make it to the semifinals of the playoffs, they have shown that they don’t have what it takes to beat the best of the best, as proved by their losses to Oregon and Ohio State in the regular season. Georgia is more talented than Penn State, and any doubts over the quarterback situation will be erased after their blowout win over Indiana in the playoff quarterfinals.
The Pick: Georgia
National Championship
Ohio State vs Georgia:
Georgia will likely be favorite in this game because of their regular season performances and the confidence that people have in backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. Ohio State will also be confident with wins against three of the best teams in the playoffs. This game will likely be more of a shootout than a defensive battle and in a shootout, the team with the better passing game will win. With Ohio State’s lethal passing offense and Georgia’s limits at quarterback, Ohio State has the advantage.
The Pick: Ohio State
For many, the 12-team playoff format has come with tons of criticism. Regardless, it’s bound to be full of unexpected twists and turns, and I’m excited for the next two weeks of college football, more than we’ve ever had before.